The growth of electric vehicles has largely been driven by the Government ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030, subsequently moved to 2035 and recently back to 2030. After this time you’ll be unable to sell a new purely petrol or diesel vehicle to consumers. Some small manufacturers have exemptions until 2035.

For many, 2030 may seem like it’s a long-time away, but over the next few years, the market will experience a profound step change as the volume of electric vehicle sales rise.

So, with the continuing ‘defleeting’ of the circa 750,000 electric vehicles sold over the last three years and the ongoing push from manufacturers to achieve their ZEV mandates, market dynamics are set to change rapidly. Put simply, if you aren’t gearing up for electric now, then you’re already behind.

And it’s not just the 2030 ban you need to consider, the ZEV Mandate also sets out a clear pathway for electric new car sales up until 2030 when 80% of new car sales need to be electric.

As new EV sales grow, we will see the percentage of EVs in the UK car parc continue to climb as we head ever closer to 2030 and beyond.

 The ZEV mandate update 

Following a recent consultation, the government has announced a series of changes to the existing mandate. These changes are in response to industry asks and are designed to ease the transition to electric.

What does this mean?

For manufacturers this does offer some flexibility, particularly with the extension on credit transfer and inclusion of hybrids into the mandate target calculations. It also alleviates the pressure on electric van sales, which have struggled to meet targets, although this would require a surplus of electric car sales to allow manufacturers to transfer credits.

More broadly, the extension for new hybrid sales means that pressure to push electric sales has been somewhat eased. This does have potential implications for the parc and we could see a rise in hybrid sales in the near term, at the expense of EV sales.